Preprint A687/2010
ROBUST MANAGEMENT AND PRICING OF LNG CONTRACTS WITH CANCELLATION OPTIONS
Jorge P. Zubelli | Guigues, Vincent | Sagastizabal, Claudia
Keywords: Stochastic Programming | Risk-Aversion | CVar | LNG Contracts Management
Liquefied Natural Gas contracts offer cancellation options that make their pricing difficult, especially if many gas storages need to be taken into account. We develop a valuation mechanism for such contracts from the buyer’s perspective, a large gas company whose main interest in these contracts is to provide a reliable supply of gas to its clients. The approach combines valuation with hedging, taking into account that price-risk is driven by international markets, while volume-risk depends on local weather and is stagewise dependent. The methodology is based on setting risk-averse multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 programs, for different contract configurations. These difficult problems are solved with light computational effort, thanks to a robust rolling-horizon approach. The resulting pricing mechanism not only shows how a specific set of contracts will impact the company business, but also provides the manager with alternative contract configurations to counter-propose to the contract seller.